Speculators Extend Record Sterling Shorts in the Futures Market

on , from marctomarket.com

For a period that included a BOJ and FOMC meeting and the US GDP, speculators in the currency futures were unusually quiet. Summer holidays with family may be more important. Of the 16 gross currency futures speculative positions we track, 12 of them were less than 5k contracts. There was only one gross position adjustment more than 10k contracts. Euro bears covered 13.2k gross short euro contracts, leaving them with 208.6k. It snapped a five week accumulation run, which is part of a larger streak. It was only the second week since mid-May that gross euro shorts were reduced. The speculative gross short sterling position ... (Read the full story)

EUR/USD Forecast August 8-12

on , from forexcrunch.com

EUR/USD was trading in a more volatile manner, climbing above range, but this did not hold, and eventually the pair fell. It certainly enjoyed a wider trading range. German GDP stands out this week. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. German factory orders disappointed with a drop, casting worries about the strength of the largest economy in the euro-zone. PMIs were more or less in line with projections. In the US, data was quite mixed, with PMIs slightly missing expectations, until the NFP came. The US gained 255K jobs, and other components of the report were also positive. ... (Read the full story)

IMF economist: Piketty's inequality claims have 'no formal empirical testing'

on , from cnbc.com

Thomas Piketty, please call your office. A study released this week by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that the French economist's widely heralded tome on inequality "provides no formal empirical testing" for the claims it makes about how capital accumulation influences income. "Capital in the Twenty-First Century," Piketty's magum opus on the widening gap between the wealthy and the poor, was the subject of widespread acclaim when it was released about two years ago. However, a 27-page working paper authored by IMF economist Carlos Góes undermined Piketty's central thesis about how income is ... (Read the full story)

Week Ahead: Long USD Vs Oil Currencies; Bullish AUD/NZD Into RBNZ - Credit Agricole

on , from efxnews.com

The last couple of weeks saw easing from the BoE, the RBA and the BoJ, and the Fed meanwhile presented a slightly upgraded economic outlook in its July statement. With the notable exception of GBP, the central bank’s actions did not have the desired impact on FX. Indeed, both JPY and AUD rebounded while USD weakened. The price action largely confirmed the notion that there are diminishing returns to monetary easing in an environment of falling global yields, weak global growth and inflation. It further highlighted that constructive forward guidance does not count for much so long as the Fed is in data dependent mode. That said, ... (Read the full story)

Does the Strong Employment Report Give the Greenback Legs?

on , from marctomarket.com

The robust US employment report before the weekend allowed the dollar to recoup the losses it experienced earlier in the week against most of the major currencies. The Australian dollar and Japanese yen managed to hold onto minor gains for the week. The US Dollar Index stalled in front of a band of resistance (96.45-96.55), which houses the 61.8% retracement of the decline from July 27 (97.55) and the 20-day moving average. The technical indicators look constructive as the Dollar Index has strung together a three-day advance. An advance through the band could signal a move back toward the recent highs. Initial support is now seen ... (Read the full story)