The overall market stance and reaction to recent data suggests there will continue to be a high degree of skepticism surrounding Fed tightening intentions unless the payrolls data is exceptionally strong. Any dollar gains and bond losses on a moderately firm release are liable to fade quickly. Any employment gain above 250,000 and earnings growth of 0.4% or higher would, however, be a game changer with big fixed-income losses and a dollar surge. A figure below 150,000 and weak earnings would trigger a further shakeout of stale dollar longs. There will be two main elements in the US employment data due for release on Friday. The ... (Read the full story)
